US Presidential Race
The 2024 US Presidential race presents a tantalizing near-deadlock with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump showing an equivalently close call. While it might seem counterintuitive, it’s crucial to remember that close polls do not invariably portend a close result. A usual polling error could mean a decisive victory for either of the contenders, especially pertaining to the Electoral College. The perception of a close election, if turned out to be a landslide, could stir up skepticism towards the poll predictions and the electoral process itself.
Electoral College Votes
According to historical trends, the election polls for presidential, House, Senate, and governor’s races have diverged from the final vote tally by an approximate six percentage points. Even a minuscule deviation from the polls in either direction in the 2024 elections could mean a decisive victory for one. As of the latest polls, with a underestimation of 4.8 points, Harris could win all swing states and bag 319 electoral votes whereas a similar underestimation for Trump could secure him 312 electoral votes.
Election Day 2024
With the odds slightly fluctuating, Election Day 2024 might not generate the results as swiftly as some previous elections. Due to the tight race, the confirmation of the victor might be delayed. Legal challenges resulting from the close calls might also contribute to the delay. However, improvements in vote-counting methods employed in crucial states, and reduction in mail votes as compared to the pandemic-stricken last election might hasten the declaration.
Open and Close of Polls
The Election Day 2024 will have millions of Americans casting their votes in person. The polling stations open and close at different times across states. While the early voting option is available in forty-seven states plus District of Columbia, eight states including D.C. features a vote mail system across the board. The first polls open on the Eastern Coast with many places, some in Vermont at 5 a.m. ET and others at 6 a.m. ET. First to close on the Eastern Coast will be in Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. ET.
